Physics of the Future Read online

  Copyright © 2011 by Michio Kaku

  All rights reserved. Published in the United States by Doubleday, a division of Random House, Inc., New York, and in Canada by Random House of Canada Limited, Toronto.

  www.doubleday.com

  DOUBLEDAY and the DD colophon are registered trademarks of Random House, Inc.

  this page constitutes an extension of this copyright page.

  LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING-IN-PUBLICATION DATA

  Kaku, Michio.

  Physics of the future : how science will shape human destiny and

  our daily lives by the year 2100 Michio Kaku.—1st ed.font>

  p. cm.

  Includes bibliographical references.

  1. Science—Social aspects—Forecasting. 2. Science—History—21st century. I. Title.

  Q175.5.K257 2011

  303.4830112—dc22

  2010026569

  eISBN: 978-0-385-53081-1

  v3.1

  To my loving wife, Shizue,

  and my daughters, Michelle and Alyson

  Cover

  Title Page

  Copyright

  Dedication

  ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

  INTRODUCTION: Predicting the Next 100 Years

  FUTURE OF THE COMPUTER: Mind over Matter

  FUTURE OF AI: Rise of the Machines

  FUTURE OF MEDICINE: Perfection and Beyond

  NANOTECHNOLOGY: Everything from Nothing?

  FUTURE OF ENERGY: Energy from the Stars

  FUTURE OF SPACE TRAVEL: To the Stars

  FUTURE OF WEALTH: Winners and Losers

  FUTURE OF HUMANITY: Planetary Civilization

  A DAY IN THE LIFE IN 2100

  NOTES

  RECOMMENDED READING

  INDEX

  ILLUSTRATION CREDITS

  About the Author

  Other Books by This Author

  I would like to thank those individuals who have worked tirelessly to make this book a success. First, I would like to thank my editors, Roger Scholl, who guided so many of my previous books and came up with the idea for a challenging book like this, and also Edward Kastenmeier, who has patiently made countless suggestions and revisions to this book that have greatly strengthened and enhanced its presentation. I would also like to thank Stuart Krichevsky, my agent for so many years, who has always encouraged me to take on newer and more exciting challenges.

  And, of course, I would like to thank the more than three hundred scientists I interviewed or had discussions with concerning science. I would like to apologize for dragging a TV camera crew from BBC-TV or the Discovery and Science channels into their laboratories and thrusting a microphone and TV camera in front of their faces. This might have disrupted their research, but I hope that the final product was worth it.

  I would like to thank some of these pioneers and trailblazers:

  Eric Chivian, Nobel laureate, Center for Health and the Global Environment, Harvard Medical School

  Peter Doherty, Nobel laureate, St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital

  Gerald Edelman, Nobel laureate, Scripps Research Institute

  Murray Gell-Mann, Nobel laureate, Santa Fe Institute and Caltech

  Walter Gilbert, Nobel laureate, Harvard University

  David Gross, Nobel laureate, Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics

  the late Henry Kendall, Nobel laureate, MIT

  Leon Lederman, Nobel laureate, Illinois Institute of Technology

  Yoichiro Nambu, Nobel laureate, University of Chicago

  Henry Pollack, Nobel laureate, University of Michigan

  Joseph Rotblat, Nobel laureate, St. Bartholomew’s Hospital

  Steven Weinberg, Nobel laureate, University of Texas at Austin

  Frank Wilczek, Nobel laureate, MIT

  Amir Aczel, author of Uranium Wars

  Buzz Aldrin, former NASA astronaut, second man to walk on the moon

  Geoff Andersen, research associate, United States Air Force Academy, author of The Telescope

  Jay Barbree, NBC news correspondent, coauthor of Moon Shot

  John Barrow, physicist, University of Cambridge, author of Impossibility

  Marcia Bartusiak, author of Einstein’s Unfinished Symphony

  Jim Bell, professor of astronomy, Cornell University

  Jeffrey Bennet, author of Beyond UFOs

  Bob Berman, astronomer, author of Secrets of the Night Sky

  Leslie Biesecker, chief of Genetic Disease Research Branch, National Institutes of Health

  Piers Bizony, science writer, author of How to Build Your Own Spaceship

  Michael Blaese, former National Institutes of Health scientist

  Alex Boese, founder of Museum of Hoaxes

  Nick Bostrom, transhumanist, University of Oxford

  Lt. Col. Robert Bowman, Institute for Space and Security Studies

  Lawrence Brody, chief of the Genome Technology Branch, National Institutes of Health

  Rodney Brooks, former director, MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory

  Lester Brown, founder of Earth Policy Institute

  Michael Brown, professor of astronomy, Caltech

  James Canton, founder of Institute for Global Futures, author of The Extreme Future

  Arthur Caplan, director, Center for Bioethics, University of Pennsylvania

  Fritjof Capra, author of The Science of Leonardo

  Sean Carroll, cosmologist, Caltech

  Andrew Chaikin, author of A Man on the Moon

  Leroy Chiao, former NASA astronaut

  George Church, director, Center for Computational Genetics, Harvard Medical School

  Thomas Cochran, physicist, Natural Resources Defense Council

  Christopher Cokinos, science writer, author of The Fallen Sky

  Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health

  Vicki Colvin, director of Biological and Environmental Nanotechnology, Rice University

  Neil Comins, author of The Hazards of Space Travel

  Steve Cook, director of Space Technologies, Dynetics, former NASA spokesperson

  Christine Cosgrove, author of Normal at Any Cost

  Steve Cousins, president and CEO, Willow Garage

  Brian Cox, physicist, University of Manchester, BBC science host

  Phillip Coyle, former assistant secretary of defense, U.S. Defense Department

  Daniel Crevier, author of AI: The Tumultuous History of the Search for Artificial Intelligence, CEO of Coreco

  Ken Croswell, astronomer, author of Magnificent Universe

  Steven Cummer, computer science, Duke University

  Mark Cutkosky, mechanical engineering, Stanford University

  Paul Davies, physicist, author of Superforce

  Aubrey de Gray, Chief Science Officer, SENS Foundation

  the late Michael Dertouzos, former director, Laboratory for Computer Science, MIT

  Jared Diamond, Pulitzer Prize winner, professor of geography, UCLA

  Mariette DiChristina, editor in chief, Scientific American

  Peter Dilworth, former MIT AI Lab scientist

  John Donoghue, creator of BrainGate, Brown University

  Ann Druyan, widow of Carl Sagan, Cosmos Studios

  Freeman Dyson, emeritus professor of physics, Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton

  Jonathan Ellis, physicist, CERN

  Daniel Fairbanks, author of Relics of Eden

  Timothy Ferris, emeritus professor at the University of California, Berkeley, author of Coming of Age in the Milky Way

  Maria Finitzo, filmmaker, Peabody Award winner, Mapping Stem Cell Research

  Robert Finkelstein, AI expert

  Christopher Flavin, WorldWatch Institute

  Louis Friedman, cofounder
, Planetary Society

  James Garvin, former NASA chief scientist, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

  Evalyn Gates, author of Einstein’s Telescope

  Jack Geiger, cofounder, Physicians for Social Responsibility

  David Gelernter, professor of computer science, Yale University

  Neil Gershenfeld, director, Center of Bits and Atoms, MIT

  Paul Gilster, author of Centauri Dreams

  Rebecca Goldburg, former senior scientist at Environmental Defense Fund, director of Marine Science, Pew Charitable Trust

  Don Goldsmith, astronomer, author of The Runaway Universe

  Seth Goldstein, professor of computer science, Carnegie Mellon University

  David Goodstein, former assistant provost of Caltech, professor of physics

  J. Richard Gott III, professor of astrophysical sciences, Princeton University, author of Time Travel in Einstein’s Universe

  the late Stephen Jay Gould, biologist, Harvard Lightbridge Corp.

  Ambassador Thomas Graham, expert on spy satellites

  John Grant, author of Corrupted Science

  Eric Green, director of the National Human Genome Research Institute, National Institutes of Health

  Ronald Green, author of Babies by Design

  Brian Greene, professor of mathematics and physics, Columbia University, author of The Elegant Universe

  Alan Guth, professor of physics, MIT, author of The Inflationary Universe

  William Hanson, author of The Edge of Medicine

  Leonard Hayflick, professor of anatomy, University of California at San Francisco Medical School

  Donald Hillebrand, director of Center for Transportation Research, Argonne National Laboratory

  Frank von Hipple, physicist, Princeton University

  Jeffrey Hoffman, former NASA astronaut, professor of aeronautics and astronautics, MIT

  Douglas Hofstadter, Pulitzer Prize winner, author of Gödel, Escher, Bach

  John Horgan, Stevens Institute of Technology, author of The End of Science

  Jamie Hyneman, host of MythBusters

  Chris Impey, professor of astronomy, University of Arizona, author of The Living Cosmos

  Robert Irie, former scientist at AI Lab, MIT, Massachusetts General Hospital

  P. J. Jacobowitz, PC magazine

  Jay Jaroslav, former scientist at MIT AI Lab

  Donald Johanson, paleoanthropologist, discoverer of Lucy

  George Johnson, science journalist, New York Times

  Tom Jones, former NASA astronaut

  Steve Kates, astronomer and radio host

  Jack Kessler, professor of neurology, director of Feinberg Neuroscience Institute, Northwestern University

  Robert Kirshner, astronomer, Harvard University

  Kris Koenig, filmmaker and astronomer

  Lawrence Krauss, Arizona State University, author of The Physics of Star Trek

  Robert Lawrence Kuhn, filmmaker and philosopher, PBS TV series Closer to Truth

  Ray Kurzweil, inventor, author of The Age of Spiritual Machines

  Robert Lanza, biotechnology, Advanced Cell Technology

  Roger Launius, coauthor of Robots in Space

  Stan Lee, creator of Marvel Comics and Spider-Man

  Michael Lemonick, former senior science editor, Time magazine, Climate Central

  Arthur Lerner-Lam, geologist, volcanist, Columbia University

  Simon LeVay, author of When Science Goes Wrong

  John Lewis, astronomer, University of Arizona

  Alan Lightman, MIT, author of Einstein’s Dreams

  George Linehan, author of SpaceShipOne

  Seth Lloyd, MIT, author of Programming the Universe

  Joseph Lykken, physicist, Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory

  Pattie Maes, MIT Media Laboratory

  Robert Mann, author of Forensic Detective

  Michael Paul Mason, author of Head Cases

  W. Patrick McCray, author of Keep Watching the Skies!

  Glenn McGee, author of The Perfect Baby

  James McLurkin, former scientist at MIT AI Laboratory, Rice University

  Paul McMillan, director, Spacewatch, University of Arizona

  Fulvio Melia, professor of physics and astronomy, University of Arizona

  William Meller, author of Evolution Rx

  Paul Meltzer, National Institutes of Health

  Marvin Minsky, MIT, author of The Society of Mind

  Hans Moravec, research professor at Carnegie Mellon University, author of Robot

  the late Phillip Morrison, physicist, MIT

  Richard Muller, astrophysicist, University of California at Berkeley

  David Nahamoo, formerly with IBM Human Language Technology

  Christina Neal, volcanist, Alaska Volcano Observatory, U.S. Geological Survey

  Michael Novacek, curator, Fossil Mammals, American Museum of Natural History

  Michael Oppenheimer, environmentalist, Princeton University

  Dean Ornish, clinical professor of medicine, University of California, San Francisco

  Peter Palese, professor of microbiology, Mt. Sinai School of Medicine

  Charles Pellerin, former NASA official

  Sidney Perkowitz, professor of physics, Emory University, author of Hollywood Science

  John Pike, director, GlobalSecurity.org

  Jena Pincott, author of Do Gentlemen Really Prefer Blondes?

  Tomaso Poggio, artificial intelligence, MIT

  Correy Powell, editor in chief, Discover magazine

  John Powell, founder, JP Aerospace

  Richard Preston, author of The Hot Zone and The Demon in the Freezer

  Raman Prinja, professor of astrophysics, University College London

  David Quammen, science writer, author of The Reluctant Mr. Darwin

  Katherine Ramsland, forensic scientist

  Lisa Randall, professor of theoretical physics, Harvard University, author of Warped Passages

  Sir Martin Rees, professor of cosmology and astrophysics, Cambridge University, author of Before the Beginning

  Jeremy Rifkin, founder, Foundation on Economic Trends

  David Riquier, director of Corporate Outreach, MIT Media Lab

  Jane Rissler, Union of Concerned Scientists

  Steven Rosenberg, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health

  Paul Saffo, futurist, formerly with Institute for the Future, consulting professor at Stanford University

  the late Carl Sagan, Cornell University, author of Cosmos

  Nick Sagan, coauthor of You Call This the Future?

  Michael Salamon, NASA’s Beyond Einstein program

  Adam Savage, host of MythBusters

  Peter Schwartz, futurist, cofounder of Global Business Network, author of The Long View

  Michael Shermer, founder of the Skeptics Society and Skeptic magazine

  Donna Shirley, former manager, NASA Mars Exploration Program

  Seth Shostak, SETI Institute

  Neil Shubin, professor of organismal biology and anatomy, University of Chicago, author of Your Inner Fish

  Paul Shuch, executive director emeritus, SETI League

  Peter Singer, author of Wired for War, Brookings Institute

  Simon Singh, author of Big Bang

  Gary Small, coauthor of iBrain

  Paul Spudis, Planetary Geology Program of the NASA Office of Space Science, Solar System Division

  Steven Squyres, professor of astronomy, Cornell University

  Paul Steinhardt, professor of physics, Princeton University, coauthor of Endless Universe

  Gregory Stock, UCLA, author of Redesigning Humans

  Richard Stone, The Last Great Impact on Earth, Discover Magazine

  Brian Sullivan, formerly with the Hayden Planetarium

  Leonard Susskind, professor of physics, Stanford University

  Daniel Tammet, autistic savant, author of Born on a Blue Day

  Geoffrey Taylor, physicist, University of Melbourne<
br />
  the late Ted Taylor, designer of U.S. nuclear warheads

  Max Tegmark, physicist, MIT

  Alvin Toffler, author of The Third Wave

  Patrick Tucker, World Future Society

  Admiral Stansfield M. Turner, former Director of Central Intelligence

  Chris Turney, University of Exeter, UK, author of Ice, Mud and Blood

  Neil deGrasse Tyson, director, Hayden Planetarium

  Sesh Velamoor, Foundation for the Future

  Robert Wallace, coauthor of Spycraft, former director of CIA’s Office of Technical Services

  Kevin Warwick, human cyborgs, University of Reading, UK

  Fred Watson, astronomer, author of Stargazer

  the late Mark Weiser, Xerox PARC

  Alan Weisman, author of The World Without Us

  Daniel Werthimer, SETI at Home, University of California at Berkeley

  Mike Wessler, former scientist, MIT AI Lab

  Arthur Wiggins, author of The Joy of Physics

  Anthony Wynshaw-Boris, National Institutes of Health

  Carl Zimmer, science writer, author of Evolution

  Robert Zimmerman, author of Leaving Earth

  Robert Zubrin, founder, Mars Society

  Empires of the future will be empires of the mind.

  —WINSTON CHURCHILL

  When I was a child, two experiences helped to shape the person I am today and spawned two passions that have helped to define my entire life.

  First, when I was eight years old, I remember all the teachers buzzing with the latest news that a great scientist had just died. That night, the newspapers printed a picture of his office, with an unfinished manuscript on his desk. The caption read that the greatest scientist of our era could not finish his greatest masterpiece. What, I asked myself, could be so difficult that such a great scientist could not finish it? What could possibly be that complicated and that important? To me, eventually this became more fascinating than any murder mystery, more intriguing than any adventure story. I had to know what was in that unfinished manuscript.

  Later, I found out that the name of this scientist was Albert Einstein and the unfinished manuscript was to be his crowning achievement, his attempt to create a “theory of everything,” an equation, perhaps no more than one inch wide, that would unlock the secrets of the universe and perhaps allow him to “read the mind of God.”